Toronto, Aug. 23, 2012 – TransUnion’s quarterly
analysis of Canadian credit trends found that the average consumer’s
total debt (excluding mortgage) rose modestly, increasing by $192 in Q2
2012 to $26,221. Although this continues the trend of inflationary
growth seen in the past five quarters, Q2 2012 is still the highest debt
level per person seen to-date. The nation has now experienced
consecutive quarters of accelerated growth when comparing both quarter
over quarter (0.74%) and year over year (2.41%) numbers, possibly
marking yet another turning point in the directionality trend for
consumer debt.
“We are in a unique situation because while it is somewhat
disconcerting to see average consumer total debt reach its highest level
since we’ve been tracking this variable, Canadian consumers appear to
be able to manage this debt as delinquency levels have dropped across
all of the major credit vehicles,” said Thomas Higgins, TransUnion’s
vice president of analytics and decision services. “It’s quite possible
that this is a trend that will continue as consumers take advantage of
the low interest environment. However, if there are any sudden economic
shifts such as a significant rise in unemployment, then it’s quite
conceivable that delinquencies will rise with debt levels.”
The increase in average debt was consistent throughout Canada. All
provinces experienced increases during the quarter except Saskatchewan.
On a year-over-year basis, only Alberta posted a decreased annual
growth rate in Q2 2012 versus Q2 2011, which constituted the third
consecutive quarter where debt levels decreased from the prior year.
Avg Consumer Debt
|
Q2 2011
|
Q3 2011
|
Q4 2011
|
Q1 2012
|
Q2 2012
|
Q/Q Chg
|
Y/Y Chg
|
British Columbia
|
$36,820
|
$36,588
|
$37,276
|
$37,433
|
$37,879
|
0.2%
|
2.9%
|
Alberta
|
$34,081
|
$33,182
|
$33,613
|
$33,515
|
$33,564
|
1.2%
|
-1.5%
|
Ontario
|
$24,721
|
$24,540
|
$25,135
|
$25,235
|
$25,447
|
0.8%
|
2.9%
|
Quebec
|
$18,269
|
$18,751
|
$18,376
|
$18,475
|
$18,580
|
0.6%
|
1.7%
|
Saskatchewan
|
$26,902
|
$27,287
|
$27,755
|
$27,811
|
$27,699
|
-0.4%
|
3.0%
|
Consumer Debt – Quarterly/YearlyDespite year-over-year growth on total consumer debt, directional changes in debt levels varied for several credit instruments.
- Canadian average credit card borrower debt (defined as the aggregate
balance on all credit cards for an individual bankcard borrower)
declined 0.93% year over year, but increased 2.70% on a
quarter-over-quarter basis.
- Canadian lines of credit (LOC) borrower debt (defined as the
aggregate balance on all LOC for an individual LOC borrower) decreased
0.40% year over year, with a 1.13% drop quarter over quarter.
- Canadian installment loan borrower debt (defined as the aggregate
balance on all installment loans for an individual installment loan
borrower) increased 0.95% year over year and 2.37% quarter over quarter.
- Canadian auto borrower debt (defined as the aggregate balance on all
auto captive loans for an individual auto captive borrower) increased
more than 13.25% year over year and 3.67% quarter over quarter.
|
Q1 2011
|
Q2 2011
|
Q3 2011
|
Q4 2011
|
Q1 2012
|
Q2 2012
|
Credit Cards
|
$3,539
|
$3,590
|
$3,611
|
$3,633
|
$3,462
|
$3,556
|
Lines of Credit
|
$33,762
|
$33,855
|
$34,122
|
$34,340
|
$34,107
|
$33,721
|
Installment Loans
|
$22,431
|
$22,281
|
$22,340
|
$21,764
|
$21,974
|
$22,493
|
Auto Captives
|
$16,181
|
$16,671
|
$17,283
|
$17,759
|
$18,212
|
$18,881
|
Consumer Delinquencies – Quarterly/Yearly
Delinquency levels continue to remain low across all major product categories.
“Across the board, we saw delinquencies drop on an annual basis,”
said Higgins. “Auto loan delinquencies stand out most as they are
traditionally among the lowest of the major credit types, yet they’ve
continued a downward trajectory even while auto debt experienced
significant increases.”
|
Q2 2011
|
Q3 2011
|
Q4 2011
|
Q1 2012
|
Q2 2012
|
Q/Q Chg
|
Y/Y Chg
|
Credit Cards
|
0.33%
|
0.32%
|
0.31%
|
0.32%
|
0.29%
|
-9.23%
|
-11.76%
|
Lines of Credit
|
0.20%
|
0.20%
|
0.21%
|
0.20%
|
0.19%
|
-6.80%
|
-7.22%
|
Installment Loans
|
1.27%
|
1.32%
|
1.27%
|
1.24%
|
1.24%
|
0.00%
|
-2.36%
|
Auto Captives
|
0.10%
|
0.11%
|
0.10%
|
0.09%
|
0.08%
|
-10.99%
|
-15.52%
|
Three Highest Delinquency Provinces
Credit Cards
|
Lines of Credit
|
Installment Loans
|
Auto Captives
|
PEI 0.50%
|
BC 0.25%
|
ON 1.98%
|
MB 0.22%
|
NS 0.45%
|
PEI 0.24%
|
NS 1.65%
|
NS 0.14%
|
NB 0.43%
|
AB 0.22%
|
PEI 1.58%
|
NB 0.13%
|
Three Lowest Delinquency Provinces
Credit Cards
|
Lines of Credit
|
Installment Loans
|
Auto Captives
|
QC 0.19%
|
NL 0.10%
|
QC 0.46%
|
NL 0.04%
|
SK 0.26%
|
QC 0.12%
|
NL 0.99%
|
QC 0.05%
|
AB/BC/MB 0.29%
|
NB 0.14%
|
SK 1.10%
|
BC/PEI 0.06%
|
Consumer Bankruptcies – Quarterly/Yearly
Consumer bankruptcies in Canada continue to fall back to historical
levels after the record year in 2009, though for the first time in eight
quarters the rate of decline was below double digits.
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Q1
|
-3.24%
|
-1.83%
|
-3.74%
|
2.88%
|
34.63%
|
-15.08%
|
-14.37%
|
-8.9%
|
Q2
|
3.13%
|
-10.35%
|
2.23%
|
7.39%
|
41.25%
|
-21.69%
|
-16.52%
|
|
Q3
|
1.43%
|
-11.08%
|
7.89%
|
16.78%
|
41.10%
|
-31.30%
|
-15.70%
|
|
Q4
|
-0.39%
|
-6.05%
|
1.60%
|
27.40%
|
0.34%
|
-10.41%
|
-16.80%
|
|
Based on tracking from the Office of the Superintendent of
Bankruptcy, year over year reported bankruptcies continue to be down
significantly the past two years across all regions. Ontario showed the
largest decreases in both 2010 and 2011, while the East has been one of
the lowest each year. Quebec was the only province that saw a
single-digit decrease in 2011.
Annual
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
Canada
|
-0.35%
|
0.31%
|
-7.15%
|
2.22%
|
10.44%
|
34.22%
|
-22.02%
|
-15.86%
|
West
|
-7.83%
|
-5.21%
|
-20.18%
|
-8.76%
|
8.16%
|
57.00%
|
-15.91%
|
-16.30%
|
Ontario
|
1.46%
|
1.93%
|
-7.28%
|
8.40%
|
12.18%
|
35.06%
|
-30.17%
|
-22.64%
|
Quebec
|
2.46%
|
0.07%
|
5.10%
|
3.78%
|
10.68%
|
24.68%
|
-19.61%
|
-8.80%
|
East
|
6.77%
|
8.96%
|
-8.27%
|
-1.82%
|
7.46%
|
19.94%
|
-8.91%
|
-12.45%
|
On a year to-date basis through March 2012, the strong downward trend continued, but at a decelerating rate except for the West.
YTD March
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
2012
|
Canada
|
-3.24%
|
-1.83%
|
-3.74%
|
2.88%
|
34.63%
|
-15.08%
|
-14.37%
|
-8.94%
|
West
|
-9.18%
|
-13.85%
|
-14.07%
|
-3.71%
|
57.62%
|
-8.33%
|
-11.19%
|
-14.94%
|
Ontario
|
-1.25%
|
-1.86%
|
1.36%
|
4.05%
|
37.70%
|
-21.37%
|
-25.20%
|
-9.14%
|
Quebec
|
-3.60%
|
9.57%
|
-1.49%
|
7.54%
|
24.53%
|
-17.47%
|
-5.94%
|
-4.57%
|
East
|
6.67%
|
-3.21%
|
-5.67%
|
-2.87%
|
14.96%
|
4.27%
|
-9.18%
|
-8.36%
|
TransUnion’s Market TrendsTransUnion’s Market
Trends is an in-depth, full sample solution that provides statistical
information every quarter from TransUnion’s national consumer credit
database, culled from anonymous credit files. Each Canadian consumer
record contains hundreds of credit variables that illustrate consumer
credit usage and performance. By leveraging Market Trends, customers
from a variety of industries can analyze industry trends over an entire
business cycle, helping to understand consumer behaviour in different
geographic locations throughout Canada.
About TransUnionAs a global leader in
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tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and
achieve their financial goals. Through these and other efforts,
TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Based in
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Illinois, TransUnion provides local service and support throughout
Canada. Visit
www.transunion.ca to learn more.